Monday
Jul282014

The Closer Commentary 7/28/14 - Reverse Off The Start

The below is an excerpt from tonight's edition of The Closer, sent to Bespoke Premium and Institutional clients each night along with graphs, analysis, and timing models for both single name equities and the market as a whole.

As if the rough and disorderly open wasn’t enough, the Pending Home Sales figure released today showed a decline of 1.1% versus expected gains of 0.3%, a really unfortunate print.  Housing, having shown signs of life in May (this particular indicator printed at 6.1%; revisions from this release brought that figure slightly lower to 6.0%), is still clearly challenged.  Our long-term outlook is unchanged, but for 2014 the pain in construction and secondary market turnover appears set to continue.

Equity markets were eventually able to shrug off a rough open and bounce off the 1968 level.  After trying and failing to break through its 200-period moving average (on a 2 minute chart) three times before 1:00 PM, the index finally consolidated into a wedge then broke out to the upside, a move that carried the index to its highs of the day and sustained a close in the green at +3 bps. 

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