The Closer Commentary 7/29/14 - Little Blue Boom

The below is an excerpt from tonight's edition of The Closer, sent to Bespoke Premium and Institutional clients each night along with graphs, analysis, and timing models for both single name equities and the market as a whole.

In earnings tonight, the biggest headlines came from the explosion upward in Twitter (TWTR, +1.74% today, +33.32% after hours), which reported a massive beat on every conceivable metric, including user growth (+24% year over year), revenue (+124% year over year), net income, and engagement.  Shares are up over 33% after-hours, and have been climbing steadily since the report.  As of today 33.9 million shares of TWTR were sold short (7.6% of the equity float), and those shorts will be in pain tomorrow as the weaker hands are forced to buy back shares at the market.  For the time being, the Little Blue Bird is really flying, much to shorts’ chagrin.

Elsewhere in earnings, U.S. Steel moves to the upside (X, -0.63% today, +9.29% after hours) this evening after reporting an unexpected profit and higher than expected revenue.  Amgen (AMGN, +0.54% today, +4.01% after hours) also beat profit estimates by 30 cents per share on almost $300 million higher revenue than expected; the company also raised full year EPS and revenue estimates.  American Express (AMX, -0.50% today, 0.10% after hours) delivered a profit beat on in-line revenue.  Insurer AFLAC (AFL, -0.80% today, -1.81% after hours) disappointed the market with a lowered EPS estimate for Q3, despite a strong Q2 report that beat on EPS and revenues.

Get some sleep tonight!  Tomorrow has a GDP release, FOMC decision, and earnings for 237 companies including Allstate (ALL, -1.54%), MetLife (MET, -1.31% ), and Humana (HUM, -2.60%).  Energy names are also reporting including Suncor (SU, -0.91%), Tesoro (TSO, +1.52%), and Cenovus (CVE, +0.37%).  In consumer space, Kraft (KRFT, -0.76%) reports; Sprint (S, +4.71%) will report as well.  As for GDP, a full preview will be out tomorrow morning with The Morning Lineup.  We will also preview ADP and the FOMC.

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