Friday
Sep122008

Bespoke's Investor Presidential Survey Inline With Real Clear's Average

The results from our Investor Presidential Survey this week have McCain leading Obama 48% to 45%, right inline with realclearpolitics.com's national average.  And as shown in the bottom chart below, McCain has now overtaken Obama for the lead in the Intrade "money where your mouth is" race.  Obama's Intrade contract peaked on July 15th at 68 and is now at 47.9, while McCain's contract has risen from 30 on 7/15 to its current price of 53.3.  It will be interesting to see if the momentum continues in both directions for the two candidates, or if McCain is now "overbought" and Obama is "oversold".

Obamamccain912

Intrade912 

Friday
Sep122008

Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50-Day Moving Averages

Even as the market has been tossed around this week, more than 50% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving averages.  Below we highlight historical charts of this 50-day indicator for the S&P 500 and its ten sectors.  As shown, the two Consumer sectors are really keeping this market on its legs.  The Consumer Staples sector has 73% of stocks above their 50-days, while the Discretionary sector is up at 83%.  And surprisingly, the Financial sector ranks third at 69%.  Energy continues to bring the market down, and just 5% of stocks in the sector are above their 50-days.  And after staging a nice rally for parts of August, the Tech sector has pulled all the way back down to 27%.

Spx50day_2

50day41

50day42

50day43   

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Thursday
Sep112008

Bespoke's Paul Hickey on Bloomberg TV Today (9/12) at 7:30 am

Bloomberg_2 Bespoke's Paul Hickey will appear on Bloomberg TV at around 7:30 am on Friday (9/12) to discuss various characteristics of historical market bottoms.

To see Wednesday's interview on CNBC, please click on the image below:

Cnbc091008

Thursday
Sep112008

Positive Reversals

After opening down more than 1.5% in the morning, the S&P 500 managed to rally intraday and finish the day more than 1% higher.  While this type of volatility seems like normal now, reversals like today aren't too common.  Since 1987, there have only been 26 other days where the S&P 500 was down more than 1% at one point, only to finish the day at least 1% higher, and three of them have occurred this year.  The only other years where there were three or more of these type of reversals were in 1987 (3), 1990 (3), 1998 (5), and 2002 (6).  Judging by those years, it would be wise to keep your seat belts fastened,

Positive_reversals_091108

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Thursday
Sep112008

S&P 1500 Stocks With The Highest Short Interest

Yesterday's release of the bi-monthly short interest figures showed that short sellers trimmed their bets for the third period in a row.  As of August 29th, the average short interest as a percentage of float for stocks in the S&P 1500 declined to 10.7% from a peak of 11.9% on July 15th.  While the initial declines were attributed to the SEC's temporary short-term ban on naked short selling, the recent declines have come after the temporary order expired in August while the SEC was on summer vacation.

Short_interest_091108

Looking at individual stocks, there are currently 13 in the S&P 1500 which have over half of their float sold short, and one stock (JOSB) has more than 100% of its float sold short.  Interestingly, even with such a high level of short interest, JOSB has managed to show a YTD gain!  As one might expect, with the exception of Arthrocare (ARTC), which is in the Health Care sector, every other stock on the list comes from either the Consumer Discretionary or Financial sector.

Short_interest_stocks_091108

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Thursday
Sep112008

T. Boone Pickens Stocks Struggle

Judging by the performance of T. Boone Pickens' stock holdings at the end of the second quarter, it hasn't been a good couple of months.  While there's no telling yet what Pickens has done in his BP Capital fund this quarter, if he has simply done nothing, the fund's equity holdings would be down 32.26% since the end of June.  That's what happens when you run an energy fund and oil loses a third of its value in two months.  As shown, SD is down the most at 62%, followed by BZP, FWLT and KBR (all down more than 50% in the second half of the year).  Only one of BP Capital's holdings at the end of the second quarter is up this quarter, and it was the fund's smallest position (CLNE).  As we wrote earlier, who knows what Pickens has done with his holdings this quarter, but it's hard to imagine that he's not suffering some big losses.

Bpcap

Thursday
Sep112008

Investor Sentiment: Uncomfortably Numb

With the S&P 500 near its closing lows from July, one would expect negative investor sentiment to be nearing its prior highs.  However, in this morning's release of the weekly poll from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bearish sentiment still remains below its highs from earlier in the year.  At the March lows, negative sentiment hit 59.15%.  At the July lows, bearish sentiment hit 58.14%.  Today, bearish sentiment came in at 54.88%.  Apparently, investors are becoming numb to the pain.

Aaii_bearish_sentiment_091108

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Thursday
Sep112008

Bad Analyst Call of the Day

Goldman Sachs downgraded Lehman Brothers (LEH) from a Buy to a Neutral today.  Yep, they had a Buy on the stock from $46 down to $5.  After having a Neutral rating on Lehman from June 2006 through March 2008, Goldman decided to take a chance following the March lows and make a Buy call.  It looks like they're throwing in the towel on that call today.

Gsleh

Wednesday
Sep102008

Google (GOOG) Testing Key Support

After another $4 decline today, Google (GOOG) is now resting on key support levels made from the March lows.  Already down 40% on the year, Google shareholders no doubt have their fingers crossed that this support holds.

Goog

Wednesday
Sep102008

The S

As expected, Standard and Poor's announced today that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) would be removed from the S&P 500 effective September 10th after the close.  In their place, Salesforce.com (CRM) and Fastenal (FAST) will be added after the close on September 12th.  Besides the fact that the additions will not take place until two days after the two stocks being removed will be taken out (Will it be the S&P 498 for two days?), there are other inconsistencies with the reasoning surrounding the removals.

In its press release, Standard and Poor's said that both FNM and FRE were being removed because they no longer fulfilled the $5 billion market cap requirement for inclusion in the index.  With market caps of $1.04 billion for FNM and $0.57 billion for FRE, that's all well and good.  However, there are currently three other stocks in the S&P 500 that have lower market caps than FNM.  They are CIEN ($1.05 bln), DDS ($1.00 bln), and MTG ($0.93 bln).  Why are they still in the index?  Is S&P expecting them to go up 500% in the coming days?  In fact, if S&P were to strictly enforce its $5 billion threshold for inclusion in the S&P 500, there would be 119 companies that are currently in the index that would have to be booted -- making it the S&P 381.

Wednesday
Sep102008

Bespoke's International Equity Snapshot

Equity markets across the world have been reeling lately, and our trading range charts for indices of 22 countries highlight the carnage.  Countries to recently take big hits include Brazil, Canada, South Africa, and of course, Russia.  Any time the price moves below the green shading, it is trading more than 2 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average.  Below the green shading is considered extreme oversold territory, and prices don't typically stay that oversold for extended periods of time.  The one positive chart might be India's Sensex index that has moved back above its 50-day moving average recently and formed a short-term uptrend.

Austbraz

Canadachina

Hkonggermany

Franceindia

Italyjapn

Malaysispx

Mexicorussia

Singsouth

Swedenspain

Skoreaswitz

Taiwanuk

          

Wednesday
Sep102008

Cost of Higher Commodities

We're getting awfully close to the point where commodity prices are going to be having a net positive effect on the budget of the average American in 2008.  In the chart below we calculated the '08 price change of the major food and energy commodities in the CRB index (Corn, Soy, Wheat, Cattle, Hogs, Oil and Natural Gas) and multiplied the changes by the annual per capita consumption of each item.  While this method may oversimplify the actual costs, it provides a good idea of how changes in commodity prices have impacted consumers wallets this year.

Since peaking at a cost of $4.77 per person per day ($1700 per year) on July 3rd, the average cost of higher commodity prices in 2008 has decreased to just an extra 36 cents per day per person, or just $131 per year.

Commodity_consumption_091008

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Wednesday
Sep102008

Bespoke's Paul Hickey on CNBC Today at 2:15

Street_signs_4Bespoke's Paul Hickey will appear on CNBC's Street Signs today at 2:15 PM ET to discuss the weakness in the stock market as the dollar makes a 52-week high.

Wednesday
Sep102008

Oil Inventories

Today's release of the weekly oil inventories showed a larger than expected draw in crude stockpiles (-5,428K barrells vs. -3,500K estimate).  Two months ago this type of news would have caused a sharp spike higher in crude oil prices.  Today, this news and the announcement of an OPEC cut in output is only good for a gain of 8 cents.

Oil_invesntories_090508_2

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Wednesday
Sep102008

Lehman Default Risk

It's no surprise that the cost to insure against a Lehman debt default rose significantly yesterday, but below we provide a historical chart of this default risk over the last year.  As shown, default risk as measured by 5-year credit default swap prices is now just above the March highs made during the Bear Stearns crisis.  Back in March, Lehman's stock price was still in the $30s, while it is in the single digits now.  The fact that the discount window is open to Lehman this time around is making a big difference, keeping CDS prices lower than they would have been if Lehman were in the same situation pre-Bear collapse.

Lehdefaultrisk

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