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Getting Back to Even: Job Creation Under President Obama

Today's release of the monthly employment report showed that Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased in September by 114K, which was pretty much inline with consensus forecasts of 115K.  Private Payrolls saw an increase of 104K, which was below the consensus forecast of 129K.  The chart below shows the monthly change in NFP since President Obama took office.  While the unemployment rate is down from 7.9% to 7.8%, there has been a net decline in the number of jobs created.  

During President Obama's first 14 months in office, the US economy lost 5.135 mln jobs.  Fifteen months into his term (March 2012), the US economy saw its first month of job creation under President Obama.  Since and including that month, the US economy has created 4.256 mln jobs.  On a net basis, the US economy has lost a total of 879K jobs under President Obama.  If you exclude his first month in office, which wasn't a full month for the President, the total number of jobs lost under President Obama since he took office is 61K, so to borrow a phrase from Jim Cramer, employment is Getting Back to Even.

The chart below shows the monthly change in Private Payrolls since President Obama took office.  In his first 14 months in office, the US economy lost 5.051 mln jobs in the private sector.  Since then, the US economy has seen 31 straight months of job creation over which time we have seen 4.726 mln jobs created.  On a net basis, the US economy has lost 325K jobs in the private sector since President Obama took office.  Once again, if we do not include January 2009 in the total since that was the month the President was inaugurated, the net number of jobs created under President Obama becomes positive 514K.  So in the private sector, at least, one could make the argument that there has been growth in employment under President Obama.

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