Below we highlight consensus 2010 GDP growth estimates for 28 countries (+Europe) based on Bloomberg's survey of economists. As shown, all but one country is expected to see GDP growth in 2010. Spain is the lone country expected to see a decline in GDP at -0.40%. China is expected to see the most growth by a wide margin at 9.40%. Indonesia and Singapore rank second and third as 5.55% and 5.50% respectively. The US is tied with Canada for the best GDP growth estimate (+2.6%) of the G-7 countries. European G-7 countries and Japan are expected to see growth in the 1%-1.5% range.
Our research shows that in the four quarters coming out of a recession, the US has averaged GDP growth of 5.4%. With a consensus estimate of +2.6%, economists are clearly expecting a weak recovery in the US. However, does anyone remember a time when economists weren't expecting a weak recovery?
Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.